Written by Emilie Sterna
11 June 2025
Greenland, the world’s largest island, has recently emerged as an important strategic lever in geopolitical rivalries, shaped by its unique location, vast resources, and the transformative effects of climate change. Situated between North America and Europe, Greenland occupies a strategic position, providing access to two major Arctic shipping routes: the Northwest Passage, which runs along North America’s northern coast, and the Transpolar Sea Route, cutting through the central waters of the Arctic Ocean. As climate change causes Arctic sea ice to melt, the Arctic region is attracting growing interest from major powers such as China, Russia, and the United States. Indeed, Arctic trade routes could significantly reduce shipping times and prevent congestion in canals such as the Suez and the Panama canals. However, it should be highlighted that, for now, these commercial routes are not yet viable due to the presence of floating ice and extreme weather conditions. Given its potential as a future key actor in international navigation and shipping, Greenland has become a focal point of international attention. That is why American President Donald Trump has repeatedly asserted his interest in the island, declaring his desire to buy Greenland during his first term and, more recently, stating that the US will “go as far as [they] have to go” to obtain control of the territory. This article aims to analyse the strategic assets of Greenland and to examine how the island finds itself at the centre of international competition, even as Greenland itself seeks greater autonomy and independence.
I. Greenland’s assets
Greenland has been an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark since 1979. It has a population of approximately 56,000, the majority of whom are Inuit. In 2009, Greenland’s autonomy was expanded, resulting in both the Greenlandic authorities and the Danish government officially recognising Greenlanders as a distinct people and granting them the right to seek independence if a majority of Greenlanders so choose. Furthermore, Greenland obtained control over energy resources and recognition of Greenlandic as the official language instead of Danish. Nevertheless, such a separation would lead to a significant loss of revenue for the Greenlandic authorities, as Danish subsidies currently amount to 600 million US dollars per year. Consequently, Greenland manages its own education, healthcare, and natural resource development, while Denmark remains responsible for foreign affairs, citizenship, monetary policy, defence, and security policy. However, Greenland’s autonomy continues to expand in these areas. Indeed, in February 2024, the Government of Greenland launched „Greenland in the World – Nothing About Us Without Us,” a foreign, defence, and security strategy covering the period from 2024 to 2033. This initiative aims to strengthen Greenland’s autonomy and self-determination by promoting a more active role in international and Arctic affairs, as well as safeguarding the interests and aspirations of the Greenlandic people.
In recent decades, Greenland has attracted the attention of major powers due to its strategic geographic position and resources. Firstly, Greenland is a territory rich in natural resources. It holds immense mining potential, notably because of significant deposits of rare earth elements (REEs), which are currently essential for green energy technologies, electronic devices and even military equipment. Greenland possesses reserves of lithium, cobalt, gold, rubies, diamonds, nickel, copper, and other valuable minerals. However, only a few minor projects are currently underway. Although melting ice is expected to facilitate access to these mineral resources, the lack of infrastructure, extreme climate conditions, high extraction costs, and the island’s remoteness from major commercial shipping routes make new project development costly and less competitive. In addition, strict labour laws, rigorous environmental protection regulations, and wages above the global average further reduce the attractiveness of the market. Nevertheless, Greenland’s economic potential remains considerable. As land and sea ice continue melting, Greenland’s natural resources such as minerals and hydrocarbons are increasingly accessible. Climate change is expected to provide access to an estimated 10% of the world’s undiscovered oil and 30% of its undiscovered natural gas reserves. Moreover, the exploitation of fresh water from Greenland’s ice sheet could help meet the global need for fresh water, as 20% of the world’s fresh water is trapped in this ice sheet. Finally, its strategic position allows it to control emerging Arctic shipping routes, reducing shipping times.
Additionally, Greenland has crucial military and security importance. First of all, Greenland hosts Pituffik Space Base (previously Thule Air Base), a key US military installation for missile defence and space surveillance which now operates under NATO. Greenland is also part of the GIUK Gap (Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom), a strategic transit route, notably active during the Cold War to stop submarines from moving secretly in the region. Today, the GIUK Gap remains important to observe and block, if needed, Russian naval movements in the area. Indeed, Arctic geopolitics have evolved significantly since the end of the Cold War. Before, the Arctic region was a zone of international cooperation. However, climate change and international competition over natural resources, as well as increased militarisation, especially by Russia, have intensified tensions. In fact, all the Arctic states except Russia are NATO members since the accession of Finland (2023) and Sweden (2024) to NATO, making Arctic relations more complicated with Russia, especially since the invasion of Ukraine. As a result, the Arctic region, including Greenland, is crucial for NATO. To sum up, Greenland’s assets and location attract major powers, resulting in international competition over sovereignty and influence in the region.
II. International Competition in the Arctic Region: Greenland’s Place
As the Artic Region is getting more and more attractive for different powers, Greenland’s strategic location and untapped resources have made the island a key target for major powers such as China and the United States, all of which are seeking raw materials to support their energy transition needs. In addition, Greenland’s mineral resources represent an opportunity for other countries to reduce their dependence on China, which is the current leader in rare earth elements (REEs) supply chains.
China has invested heavily in Arctic countries, particularly in mining and infrastructure projects in Greenland. These initiatives, detailed in a 2018 White Paper, aim to build the “Polar Silk Road”, a maritime transport route in the Arctic, thereby increasing China’s influence in the region, in parallel with its Belt and Road Initiative. This demonstrates China’s goal of accessing Greenland’s resources and new shipping routes, notably because nearly half of China’s GDP relies on maritime trade. In the 2010s, as part of its desire to become more independent, Greenland sought investment from Chinese companies. However, China’s presence has declined in recent years, following the failure or stagnation of numerous mining projects. China’s mining, infrastructure investment, and political engagement efforts have largely been blocked by the United States and Denmark, which have worked together to limit Chinese influence. For example, the United States and Denmark, concerned by China’s presence in the region, have contributed to sabotaging China’s development of new airports and the acquisition of a former Danish naval base in Greenland, which China had intended to convert into a research station. More recently, in 2023, the Greenlandic government banned Chinese companies from mining uranium for environmental reasons. Thus, although China is Greenland’s main trading partner, its presence on the island is now minimal, with only a limited role in the fishing sector. As a result, China’s presence in the Arctic is concentrated primarily in Russia. Russia, as an Arctic country, is not directly involved with Greenland. However, Russia has remilitarised and expanded its military presence in the Arctic region. It has notably reopened former Cold War military bases and expanded its fleet of icebreakers.Russia considers the Arctic a crucial issue for its economy and security. Its influence, military buildup, and resource claims in the region worry Western powers and affect Greenland’s strategic calculations.
The United States has had a long-standing interest in Greenland, having already made offers to purchase the territory in 1868 and 1946. In 2019, Donald Trump attempted to buy the island during his first term. Donald Trump revived the idea of purchasing Greenland again in December 2024 for his second term. All these proposals have been rejected by the Greenlandic government and the Danish Prime Minister, creating tension between the two nations. These attempts to purchase the island are seen as a response to China’s and Russia’s growing influence in the region. Indeed, it is mainly due to the interest of Russia, and especially China, in the Arctic region, that the United States wishes to take control of Greenland, because the influence of Russia and China could pose a threat to the United States. The US continues to maintain a strong military presence and views Greenland as a vital security asset. Indeed, if Greenland were under Russian or Chinese control, the Arctic maritime routes would be monopolised by them; thus, buying Greenland would help the United States secure these strategic passageways. However, even if the United States took control of Greenland, it would not change much for them, as commercial routes are currently very limited and they already have a strong military presence with the Pituffik base and the GIUK Gap. Nevertheless, it is important to note that although the United States wants to make Greenland its 51st state, the ultimate decision belongs to the Greenlandic population, following the Greenland Self-Government Act of 2009. Furthermore, Greenland is also an important partner of the European Union due to its proximity to Europe and its resources.
III. Greenland’s Future Prospects and Challenges
Greenland’s future is shaped by both opportunity and substantial challenges as it navigates intensifying geopolitical interest in the Arctic. While increased focus brings the promise of investment and infrastructure development to support its ambitions for greater autonomy, Greenland faces multiple dilemmas. Firstly, the expansion of mining, despite offering economic independence, raises environmental concerns and threatens the traditional livelihoods of Inuit communities who depend on hunting, fishing, and gathering. Pollution from mining could also harm essential ecosystems and reduce access to vital resources, especially fishing, which is crucial to the Greenlandic economy. Mining would inevitably lead to the industrialisation of natural habitats and an increase in traffic, thus reducing the availability of resources. Indigenous populations would then have to change their way of living and become dependent on the market economy, resulting in potentially strong social divisions. Secondly, the opening of new Arctic shipping routes is potentially very dangerous due to persistent sea ice, icebergs, and extreme environmental conditions, increasing costs and requiring highly skilled navigation. Moreover, the decline in Arctic ice melt is spatially non-uniform from year to year, marking a variable geographic pattern of melting. Furthermore, this ice retreat is seasonal and its melting rate is unpredictable and does not occur all at once. On the one hand, mining opportunities and Arctic routes are unlikely to become viable in the coming years. On the other hand, estimates of oil resources are believed to be inaccurate. Indeed, oil companies that conducted exploration campaigns between 2011 and 2020 did not discover any exploitable deposits. Greenland’s government must therefore balance the pressures of international investment, the protection of its fragile environment, and the rights of its Indigenous population. As an active member of the Arctic Council, Greenland is positioned to influence regional governance, but it must also manage the competing interests of global powers, ensuring that its sovereignty, sustainable development, and cultural heritage remain at the forefront of its strategic priorities.
In conclusion, Greenland’s strategic position at the heart of geopolitical rivalries presents both new opportunities and significant challenges for the territory. As major powers compete for influence in the Arctic, Greenland must safeguard its environment, preserve its unique culture, and maintain its autonomy.
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