On 8th July, Emperor Naruhito of Japan paid an official state visit to Mongolia cementing the bilateral relations greatly. President of Mongolia, Khurelsukh.U, extended its open arms towards the emperor, welcoming him warmly with his palace guards. Compared to the other state visits from Japan, the official visit is historic and symbolic as it is being hailed as the first state visit from the Emperor of Japan to Mongolia. Throughout the 8 days visit, Emperor Naruhito, alongside his empress Masako participated in several events such as tribute to the Japanese POWs memorial and “Naadam” state festival. The visit not only strengthened its diplomatic ties, but it also signaled Japan’s willingness to rebalance the influences coming from Russia and China as “third neighbor”.

The background

Historically speaking, first contact of these two civilizations was established during the late 13th century when Yuan dynasty under Kublai Khan attempted to subjugate the Japan by two times. The efforts were backfired as the destructive typhoon called “Kamikaze” wiped out the entirety of the empires’ armada. Gradually, both countries were slide into the abyss of void as Japan choose self-isolation over openness and Mongolia fractured into small princely states which lost their sovereignties completely under the reign of Qin dynasty in the 17th century. Soon, the frenzies of western colonial powers knocked the doors of the once mighty nations of Asia that dominated the world through silk, spices and porcelains. By carefully observing the Middle Kingdom gulped by the European colonial empires, Japan, united under the banner of Emperor Meiji, rapidly modernized its economy and army not to become another helpless victim of their “crusade”. But, the nation itself also wanted earnestly to secure its “rightful place” among the hierarchy of the western powers which Tokyo firmly believed that it would guarantee its status as a great power in the world and its national security. Expansion from Imperial Russia also threatened the aims of ascending Japan that was scrambling over warm-water ports and railways in the Manchuria and Korean Peninsula. Japan ultimately managed to win against mighty Russian Empire over North-East Asia in the beginning of the 20th century. Initially, Japan’s gestures made a certain sense of its justification by creating a buffer zone against expansionist Russia in the Manchuria and Korea to protect its boundaries. Yet, the frontiers of Mongolian grasslands, intrigued the Japanese policy makers as it befitted their envisioned plans of the expansion on the expectation of vast resources and agricultural prospects. Henceforth, in 1907, Japan signed a secret agreement with Russia to divide their sphere of influence over Mongolia. Still, Japan, did not bound itself to the treaty from 1910s to late 1930s as the unyielding greed of the empire did not halt. To overturn the status-quo,

Japan conducted a series of hard and soft policies through capitalizing the nationalism of Mongols, espionage, diplomacy and military operations. When Mongolia managed to gain its independence from the rule of Qing dynasty in 1911 and the yoke of Chinese warlords in 1921, the sentiment of Mongolian higher-echelons about Japan was ranging from positive feelings to relative precautious. Once the newly established Soviet Union put Mongolia under its umbrella in 1924, Moscow started to entrench its presence via coercive and brutal measures. To keep Mongolia aligned with its strategic objects, Soviet Union pressured Mongolian government to enact several acts of collectivization and commit unthinkable atrocities against “anti-class”, “Japanese spies” which claimed around tens of thousands including prominent politicians, intellectuals and other such backgrounds such as herders and workers. As a result, the repressions instigated by the Soviet Union deeply traumatized the entire nation and Ulaanbaatar had no choice but to follow Moscow’s instructions obediently leaving no room for diplomatic maneuvers. In the 1930s and 1940s, the relations between Mongolia and Japan were bogged down to animosity and mistrust as Japan was aggressively expanding its territory across the Indo-Pacific region throughout the early 20th century. The expansion literally dragged Mongolia, Soviet Union, Japan and its puppet state Manchukuo into brief yet intense armed conflict near the lake Khalkhin Gol in the east of Mongolia.  The Soviets and Mongols managed to contain Japan’s expansion and deliberately signed a non-aggression pact with Japan in 1940.

Contemporary era and the significance of Mongolia

After Japan lost the war against the US, the land of the rising sun managed to dominate the world economy via its innovations and the financial assistance from the US under the guidance of containment policy. Meanwhile, the ties between Mongolia and Japan would gradually warm up as Japan settled its wartime reparations by offering to build a cashmere factory, known as “Gobi” cashmere today. This marked the detente towards Japan and the two nations’ relations were being normalized as the waning years of the Cold war was coming to an end. The loose grip of the Kremlin also allowed the exchange of state visits from both sides freely laying the foundations of amiable relations. When the tables flipped in and the cold war ended in favor of the free world, Mongolia found itself in a deep economic crisis as the Soviet Union (then Russia) withdrew its economic support in the 1990s, which nearly amounted to one third of the country’s GDP. Though Mongolia was painfully transitioning from the command to market economy, Japan initiated the series of economic aids and supported its membership of the several international institutes such as World Trade Organization. Japan has provided over 3.3 billion dollars of aid to Mongolia on the basis of assisting Mongolia’s development according to the Embassy of Mongolia’s data in Japan. The actions itself portrayed Japan in a more positive light. The political relations of these two countries elevated greatly as the partnership reached  “special strategic” level in 2022. Unlike Korea (including North Korea) and China, Mongolia is the only country in East Asia to have functional relations with Japan which does not have any historical apathy regarding the past conflicts such as the Battle of Khalkhin Gol. In 2019, a survey conducted by Japanese diplomats showcased that 87% of respondents from Mongolia perceived Japan favorably as a “very friendly” country. Thus, Japan is taking a huge relief of cold shoulders from its other East Asian counterparts. On the one hand, Japan is under the heavy pressure to assume a broader strategic role in the region as China is aggressively increasing its sphere of influence throughout Asia by pouring out its lucrative investments. Not only limited to the economic influence, China is also increasing its naval presence in the Pacific Ocean challenging Japan’s maritime security. In early June, Japan detected two aircraft carriers near the remote islands within the Japanese economic zone alarming the officials. Therefore, Japan is exploring every possibility to counterweight China’s initiatives by setting up a network of alliances  according to Friedrich Ebert Stiftung even before Trump’s secondary presidency. The war in Ukraine is also likely prompting Russia to engage actively in energy talks with China regarding the new gas pipelines such as Force of Siberia 2 transitioning through Mongolia. The increasing demand of Electronic Vehicles (EV) and the AI rivalry with the US could be decisive factors in the final decision of reaching an agreement. By doing so, the pressure deriving from Russia and China would put Japan in a rough spot to deter their increasing “passive aggressiveness” towards Mongolia. As of Mongolia, the decline of globalization is causing uncertainty and doubts as the US is approaching global politics in a more reckless way motivated by “America First” interests. Although Japan could step-in as a third-party player to fill the vacuum, Mongolia is facing a dilemma to create a win-win situation for both parties. The two countries’ trade is severely imbalanced as Mongolia does not offer substantial materialistic benefits except ideology and diplomacy. The Ministry of Foreign affairs in Japan reported that Mongolia’s export to Japan only amounted to a meager 0.45 million yen in 2023. The rise of AI technology, however, might revitalize this dead-end foreign trade due to Mongolia’s rare earth resources. Global Times reported that Mongolia’s rare earth reserves were estimated around 31 million tones second only to China. In the eyes of Japanese officials, a friendly country with a democratic lean that possesses vast amounts of rare earth elements is a golden opportunity to minimize its reliance on Chinese imports. Furthermore, Japan could invest in prospective projects related to the advanced mining process which Mongolia is in desperate need of. But some experts such as Mendee.J warned that Japan might offer only moral support rather than tangible support.

The challenges ahead for prospective cooperation.  

Even though these two countries enjoy more close relations, Mongolia and Japan face several dilemmas for further cooperation due to the rising tensions between the current benefactors of world order (NATO, EU and the renegade US) and alliances such as BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organization intending to impose their version of fractured multipolar-order. In addition, the flaws of Mongolian governance and lack of initiatives from Japan could limit two-countries scope of further operations. First of all, Mongolia’s absolute reliance on the Chinese (In 2024, nearly 91% of exports directly went to China according to the national statistics office of Mongolia) market is hindering Japanese efforts to establish noticeable business presence. Secondly, the investment environment in Mongolia is being unclear and chaotic due to the internal factionalism. Corruption, also, plays a vital role in dispersing risk-averse Japanese investors. Mongolia scored only 33 out of 100 points on the corruption perception index in 2024 making the country unattractive for investors to dive-in. So, Mongolia should take serious steps to resolve the corruption by setting up disciplinary motion, legal reforms and fostering investor-friendly atmosphere. Thirdly, Japan needs to pump up its funding for the practical projects that is equivalent to new Chinggis Khan airport and new sewage treatment system.