Sudan. The country that went from independence to a joint protectorate system then gained independence again, lost half of its territory and became 2 independent states, suffered under dictatorship, and is currently facing one of the biggest humanitarian crises. All these events happened since the beginning of the 20th century and still last to this day. In this analysis we talk about the last few parts of the state’s history, try to give a clear picture about the current situation, and also try to look in the future, and see what alternative futures the country and the Sudanese people have for 2025.
From Joint Protectorate to Independent Fragile State
For the first half of the century, Sudan used to be a Joint Protectorate of Egypt and the United Kingdom (UK). It all started in 1898, when Kairo and London created the condominium agreement, that put Sudan under the rule of Egypt and the UK. Although by the agreement the 2 states shared equal authority over Sudan, in reality, Britain held almost all the administrative and political control. The main political figure, the Governor-General of Sudan was also appointed by London and represented Britain’s dominant role under every circumstance. In 1956, by the end of a long-lasting process, both London and Kairo gave up on their positions and supported the creation of the newly independent country. The motivation behind this event was a mix of international happenings, the rise of nationalism among the Sudanese, and the different problems of the 2 states back in their own country.
The new Republic of Sudan immediately faced several challenges, that the new government wasn’t ready for. The territory for the new state was approximately 1 million square miles and the geopolitical location of it could hardly be worse. The new state is located among some of the most violent and politically damaged countries in the world. Also, the state was divided into two parts very quickly. The northern region was the wealthier part, mostly inhabited by Arab and Muslim people. When as, the southern part was the “left behind” region, demographically impoverished, and ethnically divided into several regions. The division between the two regions led straight to 2 different civil wars. The second one – and the more important one – took place from 1983 until 2005, although the civil war ended in 2011 when the country was officially divided into two new states. Besides the civil war(s), during the post-colonial period, Sudan faced a hard and cruel dictatorship, that held the country back even more. Omar al-Bashir gained power in 1989 when he returned to Sudan from Egypt. He spent his young years in Kairo, where he learnt about the local military system, and even himself fought in the Egyptian army against Israel in 1973. Once he gained power, he created a system that was totally dependent on military power. During his dictatorship, the country not only faced the civil war and the separation of the two regions but also experienced the country’s biggest genocide in history. A few years before 2005, just right when the north-south conflict started to be settled, Omar al-Bashir led military actions against the western region of the country, the Darfur region. The Sudanese army started to systematically brutalize and execute the non-Arab population, such as the Fur people, the Zaghawa people, and the Masalit people. When the international community learnt about the situation in Darfur, the International Criminal Court (ICC) immediately considered the situation as a systematic genocide and announced warrants against the members of the government. Omar al-Bashir’s reaction was hardly cooperative. He imposed restrictive interpretations of Sharia, hired private military forces to act for the government and fight in Darfur, enforced morality police, and lastly, persecuted Christianity and other minority religions. The dictatorship ended in 2019 when a military coup took over and created a new government. The main actors during the coup were the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF)
From 2019, until the never-ending humanitarian crisis
After the 2019 events, the RSF became the most powerful paramilitary group in the country, which also meant they had the biggest influence over the new political system. Originally the militia was created under the Bashir times, by the Arab majority in order to fight southern Sudanese rebels and finish the Darfur war. The RSF’s leader, Mohamed Haman Dagalo established a transitional government and started to work on the new constitution besides the SAF leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan general, who also took responsibility. They created the Transitional Sovereignty Council. The council chose Abdalla Hamdok, an economist with military experience, to be the prime minister (pm) of the new country. Although neither Harman nor Burhan was happy about the new pm, it was beneficial for both to let someone else take responsibility for the country’s problems. His short period in office was mainly remembered for his failed economic revolution attempts, which directly led to 2021 when he got arrested and removed from office. After pressure from society, Hamdok returned to office for 2 months from December 2021, until January 2022. His second time in office was even more unforgettable and quick, which led straight to his resignation at the beginning of 2022. By the middle of 2022, Burhan and Harman gained power again and started to influence the democratic transition. As one of the first few steps, the new leadership proposed the integration of the RSF into the SAF, although, the deadline of the integration process was not clarified. The slow integration process led to unwanted disagreements and even military conflicts in the future. In April 2023, multiple SAF troops were deployed in the capital of North Sudan, Khartoum and the RSF also mobilized several units of theirs. On the 15 of April, several explosions shook the streets of the capital of Sudan, Khartoum, which led straight to gun fights between the 2 military groups. Officially both military group leaders accused the other group of the start of the fights, but the truth is still unknown to the international community.
To be able to understand the differences between the SAF and RSF, you can find a short description of them below:
- SAF – Top army brass are mostly Nile Valley Arabs, representing the most elite and privileged ethnic groups in the country. Unlike the RSF, the army is fairly diverse with soldiers from most parts of the country. Arab racism toward African tribes exists in SAF, which explains why army units have executed civilians on an ethnic basis as well.
- RSF- Top RSF commanders and most of their fighters hail from Arab tribes in the western Darfur region. The bulk of the RSF adheres to an extremely racist, Arab-supremacist ideology. The belief system states that Darfur’s historic African tribal groups must be cleansed from the region and that all other Sudanese Arabs are inferior.
From the 15 of April 2021 until our day, approximately 9000 attacks were exchanged between the sides. SAF and its allies control the north and east regions of the country and parts of central and southern Sudan, when while RSF controls almost all of western Sudan and parts of the central and south regions, including the majority of the capital, Khartoum.
Humanitarian crisis, and the never-ending genocides
Since the war started between the 2 paramilitary groups, countless towns have been destroyed or extremely damaged. The majority of farmers were forced to leave their lands, which led to economic disaster since one of the “strongest” pillars of the economy was agriculture. Approximately 135,000 civilians have died from violence or hunger. Nearly 25 million Sudanese facing food insecurity, almost 15 million (!!!) people were forced to migrate from their homes, and almost 75% of the state’s healthcare system has collapsed and hasn’t been repaired. The ICC stated war crimes on both sides and most of the international community shows total isolation from the country.
Since 2025, the United Nations (UN) High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Türk stated that the conflict in Sudan is taking an even more dangerous turn for civilians. UN reports say that the battle for control is getting more radical and desperate, and the number of attacks against ethnic groups is getting higher and higher. Since the new year began, several attacks against refugee camps were reported to the United Nations. OHCHR reports say a camp 40 km away from the capital was attacked by both military groups, and 21 and 13 civilians lost their lives during these attacks.
What can we expect from 2025?
The involvement of foreign interests in the Sudan war can influence the length of the war in a very negative way. As a” positive” influence, the United Nations, Saudi Arabia and the African Union all tried to help the two sides negotiate and end the war above the table, and not on the battlefield. These attempts are mostly failing, none of the sides are willing to give up on their ambitions to become the one and only leader of Sudan. At the same time, different Islamist militias and the United Arab Emirates are also getting involved in the fights. The involvement of Islamist Omar al-Bashir loyalists besides the SAF led to dissatisfaction from several states around the region and motivated them to get involved. The UAE is a well-known actor in the fight against Islamist military groups, and in recent years Abu Dabi started to intervene in the different conflicts around the Horn of Africa region. The alliance between the RSF and the UAE is obviously not motivated just by the fight against the Islamist influence, but also by the RSF’s role in the fight against Houthi paramilitary groups in Yemen, and also by economic interests. RSF are in control of the majority of the golden mines in the country, and the military leadership decided to take most of the gold straight to the UAE and sell it there for the world.
As we can see, the involvement of foreign powers is not helpful for the Sudanese people at all. Although several global actors are raising voices against the current situation in the country, the average person outside of Africa usually has no idea about what is really going on in Sudan. The reasons behind this cannot be described simply. Some researchers say that the lack of importance of Sudan in the global economic system is the reason why the world’s leading powers are not acting harshly to solve the conflict. Other researchers say the state is too large and too divided ethnically to create a stable country. Although there are multiple other reasons as well, the fact of the humanitarian crises is constant. The lack of support from the international community and the constant danger over that few refugee camps are pushing the Sudanese people into a never-ending danger, where nobody sees the light at the end of the tunnel.
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