Syria’s Fragile Future: From Assad’s Rule to a Transitional Government

Szerző: Kováts Máté | jan 15, 2025 | Ázsia, Elemzés, Foreign Relations, Politika

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In 1970, Hafez Al-Assad gained power in Syria through a military coup. He expanded his control through torture, military force, and the systematic suppression of any political opposition. As a result, he maintained his rule for 30 years, relying on networks of loyalty and various international alliances. At the turn of the millennium, Bashar Al-Assad succeeded his father and assumed power. The early years of his rule were telling for the Syrian people, marking the beginning of a harsh regime. One of the early signs of trouble was the so-called “Damascus Spring,” where activists advocating for reforms were imprisoned. In 2004, the new leadership targeted Kurdish activists demanding cultural and political rights for their minority. These events were just a few indicators of the Assad regime’s repressive approach, which led to the events of 2011.

Bashar Al-Assad and the Collapse of the State

The situation began to deteriorate in March 2011, when weekly protests and demonstrations spread across the country, involving hundreds of thousands of citizens calling for the end of the Assad dynasty’s rule. In response, the regime bolstered its military presence and resorted to unprecedented violence to maintain order. In just five months, over 3,000 protesters were killed, and around 10,000 were arrested or disappeared. By the end of the year, the regime faced a new problem: defections within its military. Many soldiers refused to fire on their fellow citizens. To maintain control, the regime sought foreign assistance. Initially, it received diplomatic support from Russia, which vetoed UN Security Council resolutions twice, preventing international intervention. Additionally, Russia and Iran provided military assistance to replace the defected soldiers.

In the summer of 2012, the first major battles broke out in Damascus and Aleppo. The regime began using airstrikes and ballistic weapons to target villages and residential areas, claiming these were hiding opposition leaders.

During this period, several foreign military forces intervened in Syria, including:

Lebanese Hezbollah
Iraqi Shiite militias
Islamist (non-jihadist) groups, supported by Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia
Jihadists from Iraq

In 2013, as the regime began losing territory, it crossed the „red line” set by the Obama administration: it used chemical weapons in two attacks on areas in Damascus, killing more than 1,500 civilians. Despite this, foreign diplomacy helped preserve the regime. Obama agreed to a Russian-brokered deal: the U.S.-Russia Framework for the Elimination of Syrian Chemical Weapons, which aimed to collect Syria’s stockpiles of sarin gas and destroy them under the supervision of a UN agency.

By the summer of 2015, after suffering military defeats in the north and south, reducing their control to just 20% of the country, Russia began its direct military intervention. From September 30, Russian forces targeted opposition-held positions, launching extensive bombings that destroyed civilian infrastructure, particularly hospitals and clinics. In the summer of 2017, Russia, Iran, and Turkey initiated negotiations between the Assad regime and opposition factions, though no significant agreements were reached.

In the summer of 2018, the regime and its allies regained control of the Deraa region in southern Syria after recapturing neighborhoods in the capital two months earlier. Deraa is vital for several reasons:

Location at a Crossroads: Deraa is strategically positioned near the Jordanian border and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, making it critical for trade, smuggling routes, and military logistics.
Gateway to Damascus: It connects Damascus to southern Syria and beyond, making it essential for maintaining secure routes.
Birthplace of the Revolution: The Syrian uprising began in Deraa in 2011 when a group of teenagers was arrested and tortured for painting anti-regime graffiti, sparking protests.
Agricultural Hub: Deraa is an important agricultural region, contributing significantly to Syria’s food supply.
Trade and Border Access: Its proximity to Jordan gives access to important trade routes, especially the Nasib Border Crossing, a key commercial gateway.

By the summer of 2019, northern Syria suffered frequent bombings by Russian and Assad-regime forces. Regime forces captured key towns along highways connecting Aleppo to Hama and the Mediterranean coast. Simultaneously, Turkish special forces, in coordination with the Russians, deployed in opposition-controlled areas.

From 2019 to 2024, Syria remained fragmented and occupied, with no political solution in sight. Despite Russia’s military dominance, Assad’s vulnerability persisted. Pro-Iranian forces and local militias, armed by Russia or Iran, contested Assad’s weakened military, controlling over 65% of Syrian territory. Additionally, Turkish and American military forces ensured that both Ankara and Washington would be influential in any future political process.

2024 and the Democratic Revolution

In December 2024, the Assad regime collapsed following a rapid offensive by opposition forces, notably Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army. These groups captured Damascus, forcing Bashar al-Assad to flee to Russia, marking the end of over five decades of Ba’ath Party rule. The regime’s downfall was attributed to its failure to adapt to Syria’s changing society, leading to widespread dissent. The swift collapse was unexpected, even by the opposition fighters themselves.

Syria’s political system is currently in a transitional phase, with a provisional government in place. The structure of the long-term system—whether it will be a parliamentary democracy, federal system, or something else—depends on ongoing constitutional discussions and international negotiations. While the political system is a crucial issue for the international community, the transitional government faces several additional challenges.

Civilians and Their Return Migration

Nearly half of Syria’s population fled during the Assad regime’s rule. According to UNHCR reports, rebuilding the country is an urgent priority. Many Syrian citizens are returning from abroad, facing the difficult reality of destroyed homes and inadequate infrastructure. Local authorities are overwhelmed, and the rebuilding process remains a daunting task.

Political Instability

Though the new de facto leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, has highlighted efforts to draft a new constitution, he has indicated that democratic elections may not take place for another 3-4 years. In addition to the constitution, the new government must regain control of the territories lost during the conflict. Currently, northern regions around Aleppo are under the control of U.S.-supported Syrian Democratic Forces, while the Golan Heights is controlled by Israel’s Defense Forces. According to UN officials: “There is a profound and shared sentiment among Syrians that this new situation belongs to them, that it is their moment to realize their legitimate aspirations… But many are apprehensive about the future. The challenges ahead are enormous.” This illustrates the precariousness of the situation, where the potential for rebuilding Syria exists, but even the smallest issue could destabilize the country.

International Position and Challenges

The new government must cultivate better relations, not only with neighboring countries but also with the global community. Recognition from the international community is essential for stabilizing the country, restarting trade, rebuilding the economy, and stabilizing diplomatic relations. Some organizations, like the UN, have already outlined demands, such as free and fair elections, the protection of minorities, and secure international laws to prevent a return to dictatorial rule.

Additionally, the new leadership must carefully choose their allies, as these decisions will significantly impact Syria’s future. Syria’s role in the Middle East, a region central to global affairs, places the country at a crossroads, with both Western and Eastern powers vying for influence. Although the current U.S. administration plans to step back and wait for the results of Syria’s political transformation, Syria’s relationship with Eastern powers, especially China, remains significant. In 2022, Syria joined the Belt and Road Initiative, though Beijing has not yet made substantial investments. Since the fall of the Assad regime, China has expressed interest in expanding its involvement, awaiting an official response from Syria’s new government. Similarly, Russia, a leading BRICS member, is awaiting clarity on Syria’s new government before considering its potential membership in BRICS.

European countries, led by Italy, are also eager to renegotiate relations with Syria. Italy has long supported Syria’s recognition as a „safe country” and has pushed for stronger ties with Damascus. Following Syria’s democratic shift, Italy is working to facilitate official negotiations between Syria and the European Union.

Economic Challenges

Between 2010 and 2023, Syria’s economy shrank by approximately 84%, leading the World Bank to classify it as a low-income country in 2018. Over 90% of the population now lives below the poverty line. Several options exist to revive the economy:

Sanctions Relief: Italy’s foreign minister proposed a temporary suspension of EU sanctions to aid economic recovery, though this requires consensus among EU members.
International Aid: The government is seeking international support to rebuild infrastructure and address humanitarian needs.
Agricultural Rehabilitation: Revitalizing agriculture is crucial, but projections for early 2025 suggest adverse weather conditions may disrupt food production.
Energy Sector: Restoring energy imports and rebuilding the oil industry is essential for economic recovery, but challenges persist due to infrastructural damage and geopolitical complexities.

Despite these possibilities, the new government must first consolidate its political legitimacy. Without a stable economy, the government will struggle to protect its citizens, and poor living conditions could hinder progress.

Summary

In conclusion, the Assad regime left behind a country teetering on the brink of collapse. The new government faces a myriad of challenges, and time is of the essence. Syria’s stability is of paramount interest to the international community, as a stable Syria would benefit the entire region. The transitional government must strike a balance between self-sufficiency and international cooperation, demonstrating authority over the country while seeking vital aid to address the challenges it faces.